*This article is originally published in the Asia Pacific Policy Observatory May 2024 Report.
Overview
Tuvalu is an island nation prone to the detrimental impact of climate change due to its geographical setting as it consists of tiny low-lying flat atolls in the Pacific Ocean. It has a total land area of about 26 square kilometers and an approximate population of about 15,000 people. Climate change via global warming is an existential threat confronting Tuvalu. The relentless onslaught of climate change impact has triggered some key institutional digital developments within the country. A climate change-induced existential threat poses a national security threat. Digital innovation is perceived to be an avenue to mitigate the impact of climate change but not the ultimate solution for Tuvalu.
Introduction
This analysis delves into the impetus behind the transition into the metaverse by examining pre-election and post-election digital developments in light of climate change impact. It will also discuss critical challenges posed by digital innovation. Accordingly, essay will discuss the following key areas: i.e. post-2024 election digital governance policies; regional digital developments; Lagatoi Declaration; geopolitical alignment; digital economy; cyber security risks in the metaverse; socio-technical impediments; the First Digital Nation (FDN) concept; the impact of climate change on digital innovation; key political actors behind digital developments; and 2024 election turnout.
This essay will first define certain key digital concepts. As asserted by Simon Kofe, the Future Now Project (FNP) has three aspects: 1) promoting values-based diplomacy; 2) ensuring the permanency of statehood and maritime boundaries despite the effects of sea level rise; and 3) building a digital nation. The latter is the focus of this analysis. FNP connotes the migration of Tuvalu into the metaverse but the term itself is synonymous with the FDN concept. It is an ongoing project where Tuvalu captures its cultural heritage and archives them in the metaverse. As the term can be used interchangeably with the FDN concept, it is elaborated further by Naqvi referring to a real-time, live update counter that tracks the progress of everything from digital twins of government buildings to public documents, to sights and sounds of local birds being uploaded and preserved in the metaverse. In the end, the analysis will conclude by emphasizing key points and will recommend an innovative pathway for Tuvalu to build resilience amid the onslaught of climate change.
2024 Election Turnout
The impact of the 2024 General Election on the development of digital policies depends on the turnout of winning candidates as different elected representatives will have varying perspectives on shaping digital governance policies in the post-election period. A close look at the election turnout reveals that key political figures in the development of digital governance policies in the pre-election period have retained political power after the election. In the Nui Constituency, Panapasi Nelesoni was re-elected together with Enele Sopoaga whereas in the Funafuti Constituency, Simon Kofe was re-elected alongside Kausea Natano.
Meanwhile, the new Prime Minister Feleti Teo was just elected as a newcomer into the Parliament. Prior to Teo’s election as the Prime Minister, he was one of the architects of the Falepili Union Treaty (FUT) with Australia. In this sense, it is likely that FUT will continue despite criticisms in relation to the issue of sovereignty.
Key Political Actors Behind Digital Development
Tuvalu has no political party system. As a result, all candidates run as independents in general election periods. Its Parliament consists of 16 elected Members of Parliament (MPs). Key players that ushered in the transition into a digital economy are cabinet ministers.
Of particular significance, the then foreign affairs minister tends to convey the collective corporate plea of the state of Tuvalu to the global community via international conferences on climate change. “Our land, our ocean, our culture are the most precious assets of our people and to keep them safe from harm, no matter what happens in the physical world, we will move them to the cloud,” said Simon Kofe, Tuvalu’s foreign affairs minister at the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 27). Such a critical remark connotes migrating the entire country of Tuvalu into the metaverse.
Climate Change Impact on Digital Innovation
Tuvalu stands at the crossroads of imminent obliteration from the face of the earth due to climate change. It is suffering the consequences of the actions of industrialized economies in the developed world. BBC News reported that in 2001, Tuvalu indicated to take legal action, along with Kiribati and the Maldives, against the US for its refusal to sign the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
According to Borget et al., Tuvalu and its population are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as its highest point is only five meters above sea level. The inundation of Tuvalu is highly likely due to rising sea levels. Therefore, this has prompted Tuvalu to undertake drastic steps in cyberspace to mitigate the impacts of climate change. One of which is the introduction of the FDN concept.
First Digital Nation Concept
The concept of a metaverse is the existence of a virtual world that replicates the physical properties of real-world items and circumstances where the virtual environment facilitates communication between users and the computer algorithms that are used to build features that simulate real-world activities – The term “metaverse,” which combines the word “meta” and “universe,” was coined by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 novel “Snow Crash” to describe an interconnected series of virtual reality realms where people in the story utilize a technology called “goggles” to access this realm and interact with one another.
The concept of “First Digital Nation” is to make Tuvalu become the first country in the world to exist virtually in the metaverse, thus preserving its cultural and historical heritage in the event of inundation. Naqvi stated that preserving heritage in the metaverse provides an opportunity to safeguard cultural and historical assets against threats such as climate change, natural disasters, and human activity. The threat of extinction of flora and fauna due to climate change necessitates migration into the metaverse to preserve them in a virtual format. For instance, the case of dodo, a bird native to Mauritius that became extinct due to human activity 200 years ago, serves as a cautionary tale about the importance of preserving such assets in a format that can withstand the test of time.
Sociotechnical Impediments
According to Hedge, there are two socio-technical impediments that are likely to be encountered when implementing the “Future Now Project” to migrate Tuvalu’s cultural heritage and lands into the metaverse: i.e. Archival Surveillance – digital archives made for preservation but having the unintended consequence of online surveillance and data collection; and Digital Sovereignty – complex system of navigating nationhood within digital spaces and their underlying physical infrastructure.
To transit Tuvalu into the metaverse, netizens’ data will be prone to archival surveillance in cyberspace if Tuvalu archives their data within the technology giants’ Internet governance ecosystem. With data being the new oil in the twenty-first century, extracting and exploiting personal data to sell and make a profit through surveillance capitalism would be an inevitable challenge. The risk of espionage activities by foreign bad actors would increase.
The borderless nature of the Internet negates sovereignty when migrating into the metaverse. Digital sovereignty gives a nation-state jurisdiction over its digital assets like country code Top Level Domain (e.g., .tv).
Besides, shifting into the metaverse jeopardizes digital sovereignty on two fronts. On the software level, as argued by Hedge, even within the seemingly ideal scenario of having a democratic model, ownership of tangible tokens still determines ownership over the space, a less-than-ideal outcome for native Tuvaluans, who might want a personal stake in their country’s digital future but may not have the financial means to compete with blockchain miners on a global scale.
On the hardware level, Hedge contended that Tuvalu has been crystal clear about its desire to maintain its land and maritime borders as they currently stand, but without the physical hardware to store its archives and virtual world, Tuvalu will likely be dependent on the private hosting services of Amazon or some other equivalent cloud-based service on the backend. Tuvalu’s digital nation will operate on the rental space of Amazon Web Services, and the maintenance of their community will be entirely at the behest of a large private company within another sovereign nation.
Cyber Security Risks in Metaverse
The metaverse is prone to cybersecurity threats that might compromise the confidentiality, integrity, authenticity, and availability of Tuvalu’s data unless there is a strong cybersecurity defense mechanism to insulate the encroachment of data. According to Jafarbeiki, cybersecurity has four key pillars which are secrecy/confidentiality (C), integrity (I), authenticity (A), and availability (A) of information system resources such as hardware, software, firmware, information/data, and telecommunications. Furthermore, Jafarbeiki explained that cyberattacks are aimed at compromising CIA+A while cybersecurity aims to protect and preserve CIA+A: Secrecy/Confidentiality (C) aims to keep sensitive information private; Integrity (I) ensures that data has not been tampered with and can be trusted; Authenticity (A) verifies a user or system’s identity; and Availability (A) ensures that authorized users have timely, trustworthy access to resources when required.
Quantum computing technology poses a new cybersecurity threat to breach Tuvalu’s data archive. If Tuvalu stores its data in the metaverse on a decentralized blockchain technology cyberspace where classical elliptic curve cryptography is used to secure data encryption, quantum computing technology will still break the encryption via the “harvest now decrypt later” approach where current data is collected through a brute-force search to be decrypted later in the quantum future using quantum computing power when the technology becomes available.
If Tuvalu opts to archive its data in the metaverse through rented cyberspace in technology giants’ Internet governance ecosystem, it will benefit from its advanced cybersecurity mechanisms via post-quantum cryptographic algorithms. Nonetheless, Tuvalu’s data will be susceptible to sociotechnical impediments through surveillance capitalism as its data collection is exploited for commercial purposes. Therefore, the new Tuvalu government has to assess the risks and benefits of the socio-technical and cybersecurity factors as they progress in the Future Now Project.
Digital Economy
Tuvalu benefits from its fishing industry greatly as it is the main source of its national income. Saalbach stated that in 2019 alone, Tuvalu generated 19 million dollars from its fishing industry. In addition, Tuvalu owns its country code top-level domain .tv, i.e. Internet addresses ending with .tv. As this is highly attractive for television (TV) stations as their Internet addresses, Tuvalu’s 1/12 of its gross national income in 2019 is attributed to selling the rights for domain use. Saalbach asserted that in 2023, this increased to 10 million U.S. dollars. This Internet country code is the most notable cultural export of the small island nation Tuvalu, which is now on the cusp of another Internet policy decision that further entrenches its relationship with global technology companies and the digital ecosystem: digitizing its lands and culture into the metaverse.
Tuvalu is connected mainly by satellite Internet technology for its communications needs. Its geographical setting is tailored toward embracing celestial ICT infrastructure. Nonetheless, it has the latent potential to tap into fiber optic Internet which is absent at all presently. As stated by Watson, cable connections are absent in Tuvalu.
However, the United States has announced that Tuvalu and other Pacific Island Countries will benefit from the Honomoana and Tabua Cable System through branching units that will come out from the two main cables. The prospect of Tuvalu being connected to subsea fiber optic Internet cable is inevitable.
In parallel, the United States Trade and Development Agency has funded the feasibility study to support the development of Central Pacific Cable by providing grants to Tuvalu Telecom Corporation to conduct the study in partnership with Florida-based APTelecom LLC. This Central Pacific Cable will not only benefit Tuvalu but other PICs, too. A total of US$3 million will be provided by USTDA for the feasibility study. The cable would be the first subsea cable connection to Tuvalu, which currently relies on satellite connectivity. The Central Pacific Cable is a 15,900 km subsea cable that will connect Tuvalu and 12 other PICs.
Minister Kofe’s latest portfolio in the communications field shall be paramount to such a development, which could better align with its vision of FDN and FNP.
Geopolitical Alignment
A pre-emptive strategy to evacuate Tuvaluans to find refuge in foreign lands in the event of inundation was effected through the Falepili Union Treaty between Australia and Tuvalu signed in November 2023. Fale-pili means “being a good neighbor”. Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty is underpinned by the concept of Falepili which connotes the traditional values of good neighborliness, duty of care, and mutual respect.
The treaty is a bilateral agreement between Tuvalu and Australia that Tuvaluans would migrate to Australia in the event of inundation which also includes a special migration route for up to 280 Tuvaluans per year to reside and work in Australia. In return, Australia would determine foreign security arrangements for Tuvalu. While this Treaty is seen as a crucial component of Tuvalu’s digital migration and forced displacement, the agreement was criticized by former Prime Minister Sopoaga who indicated a breach of sovereignty and thus pledged to repel it after the 2024 General Election if he heads the new government.
Amidst these concerns, the new Prime Minister Feleti Teo urged the Australian government to give “guarantees” that Tuvalu’s “sovereignty is intact”. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesperson, in response to media inquiries, reiterated that the Treaty “recognizes that the statehood and sovereignty of Tuvalu will continue” .
Lagatoi Declaration
The Lagatoi Declaration was made at the Lagatoi Building in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, on August 28, 2023. It was a declaration of Pacific ICT Ministers calling for Digital Transformation of the Pacific with a focus on the following six priority areas: (1) digital transformation; (2) digital innovation and entrepreneurship; (3) digital infrastructure; (4) digital security and trust; (5) digital capacity building and skills development; and (6) regional cooperation and representation.
Tuvalu was represented by Hon. Panapasi Nelesone, the then Minister for Justice, Communication, and Foreign Affairs. However, Nelesone did not sign the Lagatoi Declaration which could imply his absence at the meeting. Nonetheless, Tuvalu was captured in the Lagatoi Declaration. Therefore, it now has a regional obligation to comply with the declaration. Specifically in the ITU Regional Development Forum for Asia and the Pacific (RDF-ASP) held in September, initiatives and commitments made by Cisco and the Asian Investment Development Bank (AIDB) have covered Tuvalu.
Regional Digital Developments
Tuvalu’s FDN rationale is aligned with APEC Internet and Digital Economy Roadmap 2022 which focuses on the following priority areas: i.e. development of digital infrastructure; promotion of interoperability; achievement of universal broadband access; development of holistic government policy frameworks for the Internet and digital economy; promoting innovation and adoption of enabling technologies and services; enhancing inclusiveness of Internet and digital economy; and facilitation of e-commerce and advancing cooperation on digital trade.
Post-2024 Election Digital Governance Initiatives
The Chief of Party for USAID Pacific Digital Connectivity and Cybersecurity posted on her personal LinkedIn account that the agency co-facilitated a workshop with the USTDA, Australian High Commission, Taiwan Embassy, and National Bank of Tuvalu to discuss synergies and opportunities to support the implementation plan for Tuvalu concentrating on the following initiatives: i.e. Training of Champions on Cyber Hygiene and Cyber Safety; Multi-stakeholder consultations on the National Broadband Plan; Stakeholder consultations on the Digital Government Plan; Focus group discussions on the Tuvalu National Disability Policy to incorporate ICT in the policy; Training of Trainers digital skills program with the National Council of Women.
One notable appearance in the workshop was the presence of youths, participating in the training of champions on cyber-hygiene and cyber-safety. There were also focus group discussions held with the National Youth Officer to integrate digital connectivity and cybersecurity into the national youth policy. Furthermore, there was participation by women, especially, the Tuvalu National Council of Women.
Evaluation
This analysis has shed light on the nexus of cascading impact of climate change on digital governance policies in the pre- and post-2024 General Election. It also reveals how political decision-making in Tuvalu is affected by the impact of climate change resulting in digital innovation to preserve cultural and historical assets in the metaverse. Cybersecurity risks and sociotechnical impediments concomitant with shifting into the metaverse through decentralized blockchain technology cyberspace and technology giants’ Internet governance ecosystem should also be taken into account amidst these progresses and decisions. Beyond that, the broader geopolitical dynamics of regional powers have dexterously maneuvered into the climate crisis of Tuvalu in exchange for promoting their national security interests in the region. In the end, geopolitics stands as the critical factor in charting Tuvalu’s future amid escalating tensions between geopolitical interests from regional powers.
Changes in the political landscape of Tuvalu following the 2024 election could break the status quo of digital developments given the high uncertainty of whether Tuvalu will maintain good relations with traditional allies. Nonetheless, I perceive that the onslaught of the climate crisis poses an existential threat to Tuvalu and will unite differing political interests to drive forward the digital transformation of the country. Diverting focus from migrating into the metaverse will be detrimental to its cultural and historical heritage akin to the case of the dodo in Mauritius. Scientists predict Funafuti risks being inundated by tides by 2050, and while Tuvalu has struck a deal with Australia to allow its population to gradually migrate, it is also seeking urgent actions to fortify its coast. Therefore, even a possible paradigm shift in geopolitical alliance shall not alter the pursuit of digital innovation, as Tuvalu’s survival instinct is paramount at the present and even in the future, too.
Conclusion
It is highly likely that Tuvalu will maintain its status quo in digital development pursuit. The onslaught of climate change will consolidate Tuvalu’s “Future Now Project” and translate everything into the metaverse for preservation purposes heretofore as a risk mitigation strategy. Prior to the formation of the new government, there was a tempestuous storm impeding the travel of newly elected leaders to the capital, Funafuti, to elect the new prime minister. An election result in Tuvalu has been delayed by two weeks as dangerous weather stops boats from bringing new lawmakers to the capital to vote for prime minister, highlighting why climate change is the top political issue in the Pacific Islands nation. It is inevitably possible that Tuvalu will become the First Digital Nation in the world.
Notwithstanding, that prospect depends entirely on the actions of the developed world where greenhouse gas emissions emanate in gigantic volumes. Against this setback, the world is shifting toward fossil-free Internet and climate-friendly energy generation from solar, wind, and hydropower as a result of its realization of the climate crisis which poses a serious existential threat to small island developing states like Tuvalu.
Recommendations
Geographical innovation is required for Tuvalu to build resilience to survive the onslaught of climate change. Transitioning Tuvalu into the metaverse could be a way forward in a sense. Furthermore, migrating Tuvaluans to Australia via FUT could be another possible avenue to explore. However, building resilience to withstand the onslaught of climate change requires innovative landscaping techniques akin to the creation of Dubai Palm Island in the United Arab Emirates. In considering the plight of Tuvalu, land reclamation should be given serious thought by the Tuvalu government.
Land reclamation is the process of creating new land from oceans, seas, riverbeds, or lake beds. Tuvalu has been chosen as the case study due to funding of a land reclamation project through the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and to explore the diplomacy of land reclamation given the centrality that land reclamation played within the 50th Pacific Islands Forum in 2019 in Tuvalu.
This is the most resilient way to innovate geographically to survive and thrive in the future as a resilient society despite the existential threat of inundation. Land reclamation is portrayed as a means by which to secure Tuvalu’s future against sea level rise and environmental extreme events such as storm surges. Land reclamation is of pivotal significance to Tuvalu as it is a risk mitigation strategy to build resilience in the face of inundation threats.
Finally, I strongly recommend that land reclamation should run parallel to the “Future Now Project” to migrate Tuvalu into the metaverse. Both mitigation strategies against the brutal impact of climate change are necessary for the preservation of Tuvalu both physically and virtually. The Government of Tuvalu should consider both options as being equally important in its current and future endeavors.
Written by Songo Nore (Edited by Qurra Tul Ain Nisar and Ankita Rathi)